Skip to content
Weather History
EN

Weather History

How accurate the data is

Weather History does not show records from a weather station on your street. Historical weather comes from reanalysis: measurements from thousands of stations, satellites and buoys, merged into a model and computed onto a grid of cells. This page says what follows from that — what you can rely on, where to expect differences, and what to do when a number looks wrong.

Where a number comes from

Historical data comes from the ERA5 reanalysis, computed by the European centre ECMWF and served by Open-Meteo. A reanalysis takes every measurement available for a given day — from ground stations, satellites, balloons, ships and buoys — and lets a physical weather model work out the state of the atmosphere over the whole planet.

The result is not a map of stations but a grid of cells. Depending on the period a cell is roughly nine kilometres across (from 2017 on) to twenty-five (earlier years), and holds a single set of values for its whole area. When you ask about a place, a land cell with a similar elevation is picked and the values are then statistically adjusted to the actual elevation of the spot, using a 90-metre elevation model. That is why two neighbouring towns get different numbers — but the difference between them is derived from the terrain, not measured on site.

One model cell, one set of values. Your place gets the cell’s value adjusted to its own elevation — not a reading from a station that may not even be there. 13° 13° 14° 15° 15° 12° 13° 15° 16° 12° 12° 13° 14° 15° 14° 13.1° 15.4° 13.2° 9–25 km
Weather station — an actual measurement Model cell — one value for the whole area Your place — the cell’s value adjusted to its elevation

In other words: the number you see is the best reconstruction of that day from the model and everything that was measured that day. A real thermometer at that spot may have read something slightly different at that hour.

Treat a single hour in 1963 as a good estimate, and the shape of the whole day as reliable.

What it means in practice

  • The shape of the day is reliable. When it warmed up, when the rain started, how hard the wind blew — the course of the day matches.
  • A single hour is a good estimate. A degree or two of difference from the nearest station is a normal property, not an error.
  • Mountains, valleys and coasts differ more. Temperature is adjusted to the elevation of the spot, but rain, wind and cloud cover apply to the whole cell. A valley inversion, the lee of a hill or a sea breeze are too small for the model to see.
  • A local shower may be missing. A thunderstorm over one village is smaller than a cell. The model spreads it over the surroundings, or misses it altogether.
  • Older data is less certain. Before 1979 there were no satellite observations and fewer stations. Numbers from the 1950s are coarser than yesterday’s.
  • A forecast is a forecast. The nine days ahead come from MET Norway and each further day is less certain — which is why the app draws them outlined, not as filled cards.

In the app

Every result screen carries the line “ERA5 reanalysis — measurements merged into a model grid and interpolated to this place” at the bottom, with a link to the accuracy note. The source of a number is never more than one glance away from the number itself.

What the app is not

It is not a station archive or an official record. It is not suitable as evidence for an insurance claim, for court, or for any decision where tenths of a degree matter. National weather services hold the actual station records for that.

Why reanalysis, then? Because it is the only thing that can answer a question about any place on Earth on any day since 1950 — including a village where no station ever stood. That breadth is paid for in precision, and the app does not pretend otherwise.

When a number looks wrong

Compare it with the record of the nearest official station for the same day, not with memory or a garden thermometer. If the difference looks like an error rather than a property described above, write in with the place and the date — it can be checked.

Accuracy is something to keep working on, and concrete examples help with that more than anything else.